中国企业对非洲投资：经济增长与结构变革

刘晨   葛顺奇 

近年来，中国企业投资非洲增长迅速，对东道国的影响也引起了国际社会的广泛关注。本文全面考察了中国企业在非洲的经营活动，分析了其对非洲国家经济增长和结构转型的作用。我们发现，中国对非洲投资增长迅速、行业和国家分布日益广泛，且私营企业已成为对非投资企业的主体。对于经济增长而言，中国投资增加了东道国的资本存量、提升了就业水平、改善了基础设施，为其经济做出了重要贡献，同时对东道国市场、环境等方面产生了一定外部效应。对结构转型而言，中国公司促进了对东道国的技术溢出和关联企业的发展，有利于非洲国家融入世界市场。然而，中国企业也面临东道国较低的人力资本水平、较高的企业生产成本、政府政策波动大等制约因素。因此，中国政府应加强与东道国政府的沟通与合作、促进非洲国家改善基础设施、优化营商环境，同时对中国企业给予政策支持；中国投资企业应遵守国际规则、推广技术转移和劳动力培训，注重产业链建设，为非洲工业化和包容性增长发挥积极作用。

关键词：中国企业  对非洲投资  经济增长  结构转型  工业化

ChineseEnterprises Investing in Africa: Economic Growth and Structural Transformation

Liu Chenand Ge Shunqi                                             

Investmentby Chinese enterprises in Africa has grown rapidly in recent years, which hasaroused extensive attention from the international community. This articleexamines the business activities of Chinese enterprises and analyzes their rolein the economic expansion and structural transformation of African countries.We find that Chinese investment has been growing rapidly in increasing numbersof industries and countries in Africa, with private companies becoming themainstay of investment in the continent. China’s investment has raised capitalstock, increased jobs and improved infrastructure in Africa, thus makingimportant contributions to the host economies. At the same time, it has alsoproduced some external effects in terms of market and environment in the hostcountries. Chinese enterprises have also promoted the technological developmentof host countries through technological spillover and pushed the development ofrelated local enterprises, thus promoting the integration of African countriesinto the world market. Chinese enterprises also face such constraints as lowhuman capital, high production costs and volatility of government policies inthe host countries. Therefore, the Chinese government should strengthenconsultation and cooperation with governments of the host countries, helpAfrican countries improve infrastructure and business environment, and providepolicy support for Chinese enterprises. Meanwhile, Chinese enterprises shouldabide by international rules, promote technology transfer and labor training,build local industry chains, and play a positive role in Africa’sindustrialization and inclusive growth.

中国对美投资快速增长背景下的美国外国投资委员会改革

潘圆圆   张明 

中国对美国并购的增长使得美国各界的焦虑日益增加。美国外国投资委员会（CFIUS）最近的改革试图解决现有审查过程无法充分应对中国投资“威胁”美国国家安全的问题。CFIUS历次法规变革具有一以贯之的内在逻辑，都伴随着机构权限的扩大，和更高程度的自由裁量权。从CFIUS审查行为的特征事实来看，中国企业的确是CFIUS审查行为的重点关注对象，且CFIUS近年来的审查方式也发生了不利于外国投资者的诸多变化。此次最新的CFIUS改革法案体现了针对中国投资者的若干特征，扩展了国家安全分析的考虑因素，扩大了CFIUS的管辖范围，改革了具体的审查流程。应该说，最新的CFIUS改革法案意味着中国企业对美直接投资的环境可能发生较为不利的变化。针对这一变化，本文为中国政府与中国企业提出了一系列应对策略，包括改变对外宣传策略、探索对外投资新方式与加强对外投资监管、重视美国对华直接投资的撤离现象，中国企业不要低估并购交易受到CFIUS审查的可能性、不放弃收购美国高科技公司与能源公司的努力、主动审视自己的企业性质并采取相应交易策略、重视在非正式申报阶段与CFIUS的沟通、充分利用美国本土的中介机构并加强与美国国内各利益相关者的沟通等。

关键词：CFIUS  国家安全  审查机制  应对策略

Reformof the CFIUS amid Rising Chinese Investment

PanYuanyuan and Zhang Ming                                       

China’sgrowing M&A has increased concerns of the US society. The reform of theCFIUS aims to address the failure of the existing review process in dealingwith the "threat" of Chinese investment to US national security. Therationale of the CFIUS regulatory reform is consistent. Our analysis of theCFIUS reviews shows that the US Congress is seriously concerned aboutinvestment by Chinese enterprises. The latest CFIUS reform in 2018 increasedfactors to be considered in its national security reviews, widened thejurisdiction of the CFIUS, adjusted its review process, and expanded itsregulatory authority. The article concludes that the latest CFIUS reform maymean the investment environment for Chinese companies have become moreunfavorable. It provides some policy recommendations for the Chinese governmentand enterprises in accordance with the new changes.

中国外商投资企业营商环境评估与改善路径

李玉梅   桑百川 

改革开放以来，中国积极利用外资，并成为吸收国际直接投资大国。近年来，伴随着经济结构转型升级，中国外商投资企业的营商环境也出现结构性变化。美国在“301调查”报告中对中国外商投资环境横加指责。本文根据外商投资动机，对不同类型外商投资的营商环境进行评估，测算外商投资营商环境的吸引力指数和潜力指数，得出中国外商投资的总体营商环境状况。中国总体营商环境具有较强的国际竞争力，也存在一些短板。据此，提出改善外商投资企业营商环境的着力点。

关键词：外商投资  营商环境  吸引力指数  潜力指数

BusinessEnvironment for Foreign Enterprises in China: Evaluation and Solutions

Li Yumeiand Sang Baichuan                                         49

SinceChina started its reform and opening-up forty years ago, it has been activelyencouraging foreign enterprises to invest in the country and become a majordestination for foreign direct investment. In recent years, with thetransformation and upgrading of its economic structure, its businessenvironment for foreign enterprises has also undergone structural changes. Inits Section 301 investigation, the United States criticized China of havingfailed to provide a sound environment for foreign investors. Based to analysisof the motives of foreign investors in China, this article evaluates businessenvironment for the different types of foreign investors and uses theattractiveness and potential indexes of business environment for foreigninvestors to grasp the general conditions of business environment for foreigninvestors. China is quite competitive in terms of overall business environmentbut it also has some room to make improvement. Based on the evaluation results,the article puts forward suggestions for improving the country’s businessenvironment for foreign enterprises.

新兴市场国家非金融企业债务：现状、成因、风险与对策

谭小芬   李源 

全球金融危机后，新兴市场国家非金融企业部门债务规模的快速上升，以及随之而来的潜在债务风险问题，引发了众多学者和政策制定者的关注和担忧。这种担忧的背后，除了新兴市场国家不断恶化的宏观基本面和企业财务状况以外，全球金融环境正在由异常宽松转向紧缩也是一个重要原因。随着世界主要发达国家相继退出量化宽松货币政策，全球利率水平的不断上涨会给新兴市场国家企业带来更大债务偿还压力，特别是那些发行美元计价债务的企业。尽管新兴市场国家非金融企业部门当前并不必然会面临债务危机，但多数新兴市场国家中非金融企业综合财务状况已接近“高破产概率”的边缘。不断上涨的宏观杠杆率以及不断恶化的企业财务状况始终是经济增长和金融稳定的巨大隐患。因此，有必要实施一系列措施推动新兴市场国家非金融企业部门平稳去杠杆。

关键词：新兴市场国家  非金融企业债务  去杠杆

Non-FinancialCorporate Debt in Emerging Markets: Trends, Causes, Risks and Countermeasures

TanXiaofen and Li Yuan                                          

Therapid accumulation of non-financial corporate debts in the emerging-marketeconomies (EME) in the wake of the global financial crisis and their potentialrisks have aroused attention from, and triggered concerns in, the academic andpolicymaking circles. The rising concerns have come from, apart from thedeteriorating macroeconomic fundamentals and corporate financial conditions ofthe EME, the expectation that the global financial conditions will turn fromextraordinarily easy to tight. As the developed countries, such as the UnitedStates, exit from their quantitative easing monetary policy, the rising globalinterest rates will put more debt repayment pressure on EME enterprises,especially those that have issued dollar-denominated debt. Although most of theEME enterprises currently may not face an imminent danger of falling into adebt crisis, given their deteriorating financial conditions, they have beenpushed onto the brink of bankruptcy. In addition, the rising macro leverageratio and deteriorating corporate financial conditions have served as a timebomb for economic growth and financial stability of the EME. Therefore, it isnecessary to take a series of measures to help the non-financial enterprises inthe EME cut their leverage levels while maintaining their economic andfinancial stability.

聚焦西巴尔干：“一带一路”倡议如何对接欧盟扩大战略

田旭 

在全球贸易保护主义愈演愈烈的大背景下，稳定的中欧关系是“一带一路”倡议在欧洲顺利推进的前提条件。中欧在西巴尔干的相遇将导致双方在这一区域展开竞争还是深入合作成为了影响中欧关系走向的重要问题。通过对欧盟的西巴尔干战略和中国在西巴尔干建设“一带一路”的具体项目分析可以看出，中国现阶段在西巴尔干的投资对于泛欧网络的建设以及西巴尔干入盟而言都具有积极的助推作用。中国的资金和技术不仅改善了当地民生，还协助西巴尔干交通和能源网络更快更好地融入泛欧网络。中欧之间在规范、标准、资金和规划对接等方面还存在很大的合作空间。

关键词：西巴尔干  一带一路  欧盟

WestBalkans: How to Coordinate the Belt and Road Initiative with EU’s EnlargementPlan

TianXu                                                          

Againstthe backdrop of intensifying global protectionism, a stable China-EU relationshipserves as the precondition for the steady development of the Belt and RoadInitiative (BRI) in Europe. When China and the EU meet in the West Balkans,whether they will engage in regional competition or deepen cooperation willhave a great bearing on the future evolution of their relations. Based onanalysis of the EU’s strategy in West Balkans and China’s BRI projects in thesame region, the article argues that China’s investment and China-financedinfrastructure projects play a positive role in pushing West Balkans to jointhe EU. Chinese funds and technologies not only promote the livelihood of thepeople in the region, but help integrate the region’s transport and energynetworks into the existing Trans-European Networks and Pan-European Corridors.In addition, there exists ample room for China and the EU to further theircooperation in terms of rule-setting, standards, funding and planning.

以收益率曲线作为操作目标的货币政策：历史经验与政策反思

徐忠  纪敏 李宏瑾

本文在对“二战”以来美国三次调控收益率曲线实践及日本2016年9月开始的收益率曲线控制政策的背景、实施过程、政策效果进行全面梳理的基础上，指出以收益率曲线为操作目标的政策仍存在很多问题：战争和危机背景下的经验并不适用于经济正常情形；财政赤字货币化不利于政策协调并威胁中央银行的独立性；容易挤出私人部门投资；中央银行政策有序退出更加困难。作为危机应对的政策手段，以收益率曲线为操作目标的货币政策并不适用于中国。今后应尽快明确货币价格调控模式下的隔夜政策目标利率，探索符合中国情形的利率决策规则，更好地推进货币政策操作框架转型，真正实现经济金融的高质量发展。

关键词：收益率曲线控制  扭曲操作  中期政策利率  货币价格调控

YieldCurve as the Operational Target of the Monetary Policy：History andPolicy Retrospects

XuZhong, Ji Min and Li Hongjin                                  

Thisarticle draws on the historical lessons of three of the US’ yield curve-basedmonetary policy adjustments as well as Japan’s yield curve control policy sinceSeptember, 2016. Analysis of backgrounds, policy implementation processes andpolicy effects of those adjustments shows that the yield curve-based monetarypolicy faces many challenges. For instance, policies that suit times of war andcrisis do not necessarily work in normal times; the fiscal dominance ofmonetary policy jeopardizes policy coordination and threatens independence ofcentral banks; private enterprises may be squeezed out, and it will become moredifficult for unconventional policies to gradually exit. The yield curve-basedmonetary policy can be used in times of crisis, but it does not fit China’ssituation. The overnight market rate should be fixed as the new policy targetrate of the price-based monetary policy, interest rate policymaking rules thatfit China’s situation should be explored, and the smooth transition of themonetary framework should be promoted to achieve healthy economic and financialdevelopment.

从权利限制到权利开放 —— 美国银行业开放的政治经济史

路乾

在人类历史上，为什么享受垄断特权的精英愿意消除垄断，向公民开放特权？本文通过研究美国19世纪早期马萨诸塞州银行业开放史，指出：在政治特权与设立银行的经济权利相结合的体制中，精英之间的政治竞争导致了经济特权的不稳定及租金的消散，迫使经济权利向更多精英分配。权利在更大范围的拓展创造了大量的银行及银行资本，降低了垄断租金。向银行资本征税免除了精英的财产税，间接提高了精英从开放中获得的收益。权利开放的收益增加，权利限制的收益下降。当精英从权利开放中获得收益高于权利限制时，促使精英开放权利的经济条件得以实现。经济快速发展与竞争性的政治架构，以及向资本征税是导致精英收益结构变化及制度变迁的关键条件。

关键词：银行业开放  精英  政治竞争  权利限制  权利开放

FromRestriction of Rights to Liberalization of Rights: A Political-Economic Historyof the Opening-up of US Banking Industry

LuQian                                                          

Inhistory, why have the elites that had monopoly privileges and were protected bya set of economic and political institutions become willing to dismantle thoseinstitutions and give up their privileges? This article provides an explanationbased on analysis of the history of banking opening-up in the early 19th centuryin Massachusetts. In regimes with closely interrelated political and economicprivileges, political competition among elites leads to instability of bankcharters and rent dissipation, forcing bank charters to be extended to allelites. Meanwhile, taxes on bank capital have led to exemption of property taxof the elites and provided incentives for bank charters. When benefits ofopening up bank access overweigh those of access restriction, the elites wouldbecome willing to agree to extend banking privileges to ordinary citizens. 

《OECD国有企业公司治理指引》修订及其对中国国企改革的启示

鲁桐 

《OECD国有企业公司治理指引》于2005年推出，在2015年进行了修订。此次修订强调国家所有权的合理性，重申国家作为所有者应遵循的原则，倡导国有企业进行平等的市场竞争和平等对待所有股东，保护利益相关者的利益。国有企业应实施更高标准的透明度和信息披露要求，董事会应承担受托责任。《指引》对中国以管资本为主的国企改革具有重要的指导意义。特别是在提高国有企业公司治理、透明度、问责机制和国家有效行使所有权等方面有直接的参考价值。

关键词：OECD  国有企业  公司治理  国家所有权

Revisionof OECD Guidelines on SOE CorporateGovernance and Implications for SOE Reform in China

LuTong                                                          119

The OECD Guidelines on Corporate Governance ofState-Owned Enterprises was first published in 2005 and revised in 2015.The revised version emphasizes national ownership, reaffirms the principlesthat the state as the owner of SOEs should follow, advocates fair marketcompetition among SOEs and equal treatment of all shareholders to protectshareholder interests. Meanwhile, the SOEs should meet higher-leveltransparency and information disclosure requirements and the board of directorsshould shoulder their fiduciary responsibility. The guidelines can serve as animportant reference for China’s SOE reform in terms of corporate governance,transparency, accountability mechanism and the effective exercise of thestate’s ownership.

寡头竞合与并购重组：全球半导体产业的赶超逻辑

周建军 

后发国家的产业组织体系，以日本和韩国最为典型。作为企业并购重组的重要形式，产业政策协调下的大型寡头企业联合投资的研发联合体，对日本的技术创新发挥了重要作用。基于研发联合体进行联合投资、合作研究的日本半导体——超大规模集成电路的研发，就是最为成功的案例之一。类似日本，韩国大企业始终以寡头竞合的方式参与市场竞争，推动韩国半导体产业的规模经济和技术创新。日本半导体企业的技术赶超也引发了美日半导体企业的全球贸易战和并购重组。因应日本半导体产业的赶超，美国在1990年前后通过政府的产业政策引导、对企业多种形式的并购重组等，从生产制造、研究开发、市场竞争等方面入手，以拯救衰败中的美国半导体产业。半导体产业赶超的历史表明，只要与产业发展的规模经济特点和技术创新要求相趋同，以产业政策推动和领军企业共同投资组织的研发联合体、技术收购、企业合并等并购重组形式，是非常有效的。

关键词：产业赶超  寡头竞争  竞争合作  并购重组  产业政策

OligopolyCoopetition, M&A and Restructuring: Catch-up Logic of Global SemiconductorIndustry

ZhouJianjun                                                    

Japanand South Korea, among the late-comer countries, boast highly effectiveindustrial organization systems. As an important way to engage in corporateM&A and restructuring activities, the R&D consortia formed by largeenterprises and coordinated by industrial policies played an important role inJapan’s technological innovation. One of the most successful cases is thedevelopment of very large scale integration (VLSI) by Japanese semiconductorR&D consortia based on joint investment and cooperative research. Similarto Japan, Korea’s large enterprises always participate in market competition byoligopoly competition, to promote economies of scale and technologicalinnovation in semiconductor industry. The technological catching-up of Japanesesemiconductor enterprises triggered a global trade war and industrialrestructuring. In response to catching-up of Japanese enterprises, the US tookvarious measures to save its declining semiconductor industry in the 1990sthrough industrial policies and industrial restructuring. The history of thesemiconductor industry shows that R&D consortia, technology acquisition andcorporate mergers that are promoted by industrial policies and co-financed byleading enterprises will be very effective so long as the M&A andrestructuring tally with the characteristics of economy of scale and cater tothe requirements of technological innovation.

智库观察

ThinkTank    

延伸阅读：

【目录】 《国际经济评论》2018年第4期

【目录】《国际经济评论》2018年第2期

【目录】《国际经济评论》2018年第1期

 【目录】《国际经济评论》2017年第6期

【目录】《国际经济评论》2017年第5期

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