后中等收入经济体的对外开放——国际经验对中国的启示

邹静娴   张斌 

在经历了三十余年的高速经济增长后，以人均GDP衡量，中国已经步入后中等收入阶段。在下一步由中高收入阶段迈向高收入阶段的过程中，我们希望从国际经验中总结一些规律性事实。本文按照不同国家在中等收入阶段停留的时间长短，把国家分为三类（前沿国家，赶超成功国家，赶超失败国家），然后分别从外贸、投资、汇率制度和资本账户开放等多维度进行比较。结果显示，赶超成功国家有效地缩小了与前沿国家的差距，而赶超失败国家却在某些方面出现了赶超的停滞。从机制上看，对外开放政策的好处在于它鼓励了市场竞争，提高了要素全球配置的效率，同时促进了产业升级和结构转型。此外，适当的汇率制度以及审慎的资本账户开放政策对于维持宏观环境的稳定有着重要作用。

关键词：后中等收入阶段  中等收入陷阱  开放政策  国际经验 

Opening-upin the Upper Middle-Income Phase — Implications from International Experiences

Zou Jingxian and Zhang Bin 

After expanding rapidly for more thanthirty years, China has stepped into the upper middle-income phase in terms ofper capita GDP. Now the country can draw from international experiences to helpit transition from the upper middle-income to the high-income phase.Classifying countries into three groups (i.e. frontier, successful catch-upsand failed catch-ups) in accordance with the durations they stay in themiddle-income stage, this article compares those three groups from the aspectsof foreign trade, investment, exchange rate regime and capital accountopenness, and finds that the successful catch-ups have managed to narrow theirgaps with frontiers, while failed catch-ups have remained at the bottom or evenstagnant in some aspects. The article argues that opening-up policies are beneficialsince they encourage market competition, improve the efficiency of globalresource allocation, and boost industrial upgrading and structuraltransformation; meanwhile, a proper exchange rate regime and prudent capitalaccount opening-up are key to ensuring a country’s macroeconomic stability.

全球经济与中国经济：新周期还是旧周期？

程实   张明   陈兴动   朱海斌   张斌  

钟正生   殷剑峰   肖立晟   姚枝仲   徐奇渊   吴庆 

2018年1月5日，由中国世界经济学会、《国际经济评论》编辑部举办的“全球经济与中国经济：新周期还是旧周期？”主题研讨会在北京举行。与会专家围绕全球经济和中国经济两个议题进行了热烈的讨论。现刊出经发言者本人审定的观点。

WorldEconomy and China’s Economy: New or Old Cycle?

ChengShi, Zhang Ming, Chen Xingdong, Zhu Haibin, Zhang Bin,

ZhongZhengsheng, Yin Jianfeng, Xiao Lisheng, Yao Zhizhong,

XuQiyuan and Wu Qing

The China Society of World Economics and the editorial board of the International Economic Review journalco-organized a symposium themed WorldEconomy and China’s Economy: New or Old Cycle? on January 5 in Beijing.Renowned economics scholars and experts participated in the meeting anddiscussed topics related to world economy and the Chinese economy. Their views,after being approved by themselves, are published in this journal. 

人民币国际化的成功标志及其可行路径  —— 一个“有保有压”具有中国特色的推进策略

刘建丰   潘英丽 

人民币国际化是一个系统工程。什么是“好的人民币国际化”？本文认为，人民币国际化推进过程是否取得成功的标志：一是在推进的每一个步骤中，人民币汇率定价权是否由中国在岸市场上中资金融机构主导，而非由离岸市场上其他性质的国际金融机构左右；并且央行能否对市场汇率走势保持低成本的影响力；二是中国持有的境外人民币直接计价资产的收益率能否超过在岸市场的同类资产收益率，或者至少持久稳定地为正收益。人民币国际化推进的潜在目标国应以富资源国和东南亚及中亚“一带一路”沿线国家为主。我们可在这些国家力推原油与矿石等大宗商品的人民币直接计价和结算；进行更多的净收益超过国内水平的人民币境外直接投融资；协助建立和发展更多的产品面向全球市场、部分返销中国市场，并以人民币计价和结算的加工贸易产业园区；同时在中国境内加快培育和发展具有广度和深度的、安全性和流动性良好的国债和准国债市场，并适时有序地对外开放。为此，本文提出了一个“有保有压”具有中国特色的货币国际化推进策略。

关键词：人民币国际化  离岸人民币产业园区  封闭式跨境人民币交易网络

RMB Internationalization: A Strategy with Chinese Characteristics

Liu Jianfengand Pan Yingli

RMBinternationalization is a systematic program. What is a “high-quality RMBinternationalization”? This article argues that indications of successful RMBinternationalization go as follows: First, during each step of the process,whether the RMB exchange rate is dominated by Chinese-funded financialinstitutions in the onshore market rather than by other types of internationalfinancial institutions in the offshore market; and whether the central bank canmaintain a low-cost influence on the market exchange rate’s movements; second,whether the rate of return of the China-held RMB-denominated assets issued byother countries exceeds the yield of similar assets in the onshore market, orat least the rate of return can be kept positive, stable and sustainable. Thepotential target countries for promoting RMB internationalization should mainlybe countries with rich resources, Southeast Asian nations, and Central Asiancountries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative. We can encourage thosecountries to directly use RMB for pricing and settlement of commodities, suchas crude oil and ores, carry out more RMB-denominated outbound directinvestment and financing with higher net yields than in the domestic market,and help them establish and develop more processing trade industrial parks,where the manufactured products will be sold to other countries, includingChina, using RMB for pricing and settlement; at the same time, we should speedup cultivation and development of treasury bond and quasi-government bondmarkets with large scale, high sophistication, good safety and ample liquidity,which should be opened to the outside world at an appropriate time and in anorderly way. To that end, this article proposes a strategy with Chinesecharacteristics for promoting RMB internationalization that adjusts the tempoof the process in accordance with changing situation. 

去产能政策的进展及其影响                                 徐奇渊 

2016年以来的供给侧结构性改革，尤其是去产能的持续推进，已取得一系列积极成效，值得充分肯定。在外需条件较为有利的宏观背景下，供给侧改革可望取得更大成绩。作为供给侧结构性改革的重中之重，去产能政策的成效，还进一步体现为产能过剩企业的经营状况改善、杠杆率下降，相应的银行贷款不良率下降、金融体系稳健性上升。但是，去产能行业的经营状况改善，很大程度上是行业之间利益再分配的结果，并以抬高其他行业成本为代价，挤占了其他行业的利润空间。在此对应关系当中，去产能行业更多集中于上游行业、重工业、国有企业，而其他行业更多集中于下游行业、轻工业、非国有企业。这不但可能对资源配置产生扭曲影响，而且一旦外需扩张中断或出现逆转，则去产能的可持续性将面临问题。因此，去产能政策确实取得了阶段性成果，但这仍然无法取代其他根本性的改革，供给侧结构性改革需要进一步向纵深推进。

关键词：供给侧结构性改革  去产能政策  行业分化

Developmentand Impact of Overcapacity Reduction Policies

XuQiyuan

Much headway has been made in China’ssupply-side structural reform, especially overcapacity reduction, since 2016,which is highly commendable. Against the macroeconomic backdrop of favorableexternal demand, China may hopefully make more progress in the reform.Reduction of excessive production capacity is a top priority of the supply-sidestructural reform and achievement in cutting overcapacity can also be reflectedin the improved operation of zombie enterprises, falling leverage levels,declining NPL ratios and increased soundness of the financial system. However,the improvement in the operation of enterprises, mainly SOEs and those inupstream and heavy industries, to a large extent, is a result of redistributionof inter-industrial interests; it has been achieved at the price of risingcosts and declining profits of other industries, mainly concerning downstreamand non-State enterprises and those in light industries. Such a scenario couldmean resource misallocation and, once external demand is disrupted, it wouldbecome a great challenge to keep the sustainability of the overcapacityreduction drive. Therefore, although it has made some headway in cuttingovercapacity, China should further push other fundamental reforms, includingthe supply-side structural reform. 

服务贸易开放与出口附加值                             马弘 李小帆 

中国经济经历了近40年的快速发展，逐步进入追求质量的新常态，客观上要求发展“更高层次的开放型经济”。降低服务贸易壁垒，适度开放服务业，鼓励外资进入生产性服务领域，是实现转型升级和价值链攀升的必由途径。服务业开放，不仅改善服务质量，也提高下游制造业生产率，并能够改善国际收支结构。最后，通过“直接替代效应”和“隐含贸易效应”，服务贸易和投资领域的开放能够提高制造业产品出口的国内附加值。

关键词：服务业开放  制造业生产率  出口附加值

Liberalizationof Service Trade and Value Added of Export

Ma Hongand Li Xiaofan

Afterexpanding at a fast pace for nearly 40 years, the Chinese economy has graduallystepped into a “new normal” stage that emphasizes quality of growth, whichrequires further economic liberalization to build a higher-level open economy.To achieve industrial upgrading and move up in global value chain, it is a mustfor China to reduce service trade barriers, appropriately open up servicesectors, and encourage foreign investment in producer services. Servicesliberalization will promote the development of services and manufacturingsectors, and help balance the international balance of payments structure.Moreover, with the direct substitution effect and implicit embedded tradeeffect, the opening-up of trade and investment in services will increase thevalue added embedded in manufacturing exports. 

经济因素、普京的政治支持及2018年大选                        曲文轶 

调查显示，普京拥有广泛的政治支持，胜选2018年俄罗斯大选已无悬念。对于普京的政治支持而言，低迷的经济并非毫无影响，收入降低和福利受损明显会降低微观个体对于普京的政治评价。但是，这种负面影响只是存在于不同群体的横向比较之间，不同收入阶层和职业群体内部，支持普京的力量仍占上风。更为重要的是，在与西方对抗的背景之下，对于俄罗斯国际地位的考量发挥了更大的积极影响，甚至超过了经济因素的负面作用。此外，民众对于普京的信任，特别是对于普京带领国家实现未来发展的信心，也在很大程度上消减了福利恶化的不利影响。另一方面，经济治理短板长期终将拖累政治支持。如果经济形势进一步持续恶化，或者当外部的敌对环境能够缓解，经济诉求在政治态度的形成中就可能成为关键因素。因此，经济因素尽管不会拖累普京胜选，但显然会对其下一任期的政策方向发挥重要影响。考虑到下一个任期可能也是普京的最后一个任期，经济治理绩效或将决定他是从政治舞台上全身而退，抑或是黯然终场。因此，改善营商环境、赢得商人和企业家阶层的支持，不仅是实现创新发展，同时也是提升政治支持和成就真正“奇迹”的关键所在，普京新政应会在这一领域全力出招。

关键词：政治支持  经济因素  2018年俄罗斯大选

Economy,Political Support for Putin and the 2018 Presidential Election

Qu Wenyi

Surveyresults show that Vladimir Putin has broad political support and there is nosuspense that he will win Russia’s presidential election in March 2018. Despitethe political support he has, the weak Russian economy still has some impact onhis election. Lower income and reduced welfare will seriously affect people’spolitical assessment of Putin. However, the negative effect only exists in thehorizontal comparison between different groups; within groups with varying income levels and professions,support for Putin still prevails. More importantly, with the background ofRussia-West confrontation, the consideration for Russia’s international statushas had a larger, positive effect that overweighs the negative effect ofeconomic factors. In addition, trust in Putin, especially confidence that Putinwill lead the country to achieve sound development in the future, has largelyreduced the negative impact of welfare deterioration. On the other hand,inadequate economic governance will, in the long term, drag on politicalsupport Putin has. If the economy continues to deteriorate in the future, orthe outside hostility eases, appeal for economic development may become a keyfactor in the formation of people’s political attitude. Economic factors,therefore, will have a significant bearing on Putin’s policy direction in hisnext presidential term even if they won't be a drag on Putin’s victory in thepresidential election in 2018. Considering the next term may also be Putin’slast term, his performance, in terms of economic governance, will determinewhether he can retire unscathed. Therefore, Putin should make efforts to winsupport from businesspeople and entrepreneurs through improving the businessenvironment, which is the key to achieving innovation-based development andgetting more political support to achieve a real "miracle". There isno doubt that he will do his best in that respect in his new term. 

国际金融危机以来美国制造业回流政策评述       胡鞍钢   任皓   高宇宁 

在美国总统特朗普的经济政策中，“制造业回流”政策占据了重要的地位。本文通过分析美国制造业自金融危机之后的新调整，总结了美国制造业发展的新趋势，并结合经济学理论，研究发现美国制造业主要由高技术产业驱动，就业流失的主要原因在于技术进步。制造业回流，尤其是制造业就业回流在美国并不具备经济学意义上的合理性。通过进一步分析美国制造业回流的政治内涵，提出美国制造业回流是在当前逆全球化背景下，美国加强国际领导权的重要表现，反映出美国对于当今国际政治经济格局转变的焦虑。最后，通过分析中美两国制造业的关系，驳斥了中国是美国制造业就业流失原因的观点，提出中美制造业的未来在于进一步推动贸易与投资自由化，努力将“中国制造”转变为“中美制造”，共同开创全球制造业创新发展的新局面。

关键词：制造业回流  经济规律  政治目标  共赢

Reviewof the US' Manufacturing Reshoring Policy in Post-Crisis Era

Hu Angang, Ren Hao and Gao Yuning

Themanufacturing reshoring policy is on top of the Donald Trump’s agenda. Byanalyzing the development of the US manufacturing after the global financialcrisis in 2008, this article summarizes the new development trend of the USmanufacturing, and, based on empirical evidence and economics theories, arguesthat the US manufacturing is mainly driven by high-tech industries andtechnological progress is the main cause of the loss of manufacturing jobs.Manufacturing reshoring, especially reshoring of manufacturing jobs, is notsupported by any economics theory. Further analysis of the politicalconnotation of the manufacturing reshoring policy shows that against thebackdrop of the current anti-globalization tide, manufacturing reshorting onlyreflects the country’s attempt to strengthen its global leadership and itsanxiety over the changing international political and economic landscape.Finally, based on analysis of the relationship between Chinese and US manufacturing,the article refutes accusation that China is the main culprit for the loss ofUS manufacturing jobs. It also proposes that in the future, the two countriesshould further promote trade and investment liberalization and jointly promoteglobal manufacturing innovation and development to facilitate their cooperationin manufacturing. 

美国流通业对外直接投资的特征、经验及启示         　　袁平红 荆林波 

扩大流通业对外直接投资，更好发挥中国流通业媒介全球生产和消费的功能，是中国建设经贸强国的重要方式和途径。借鉴发达国家流通业对外直接投资经验，推动中国流通业对外直接投资水平提升，是本文关注的重点。参照美国流通业对外直接投资的经验，“十三五”期间中国流通业扩大对外直接投资应确保国内流通企业对国内市场的绝对主导权，强化流通业对外直接投资的根基；以国家战略为先导，配套国家政策引导流通业对外直接投资流向，保障海外投资安全与收益获取；注重流通业与其他对外直接投资的产业之间的协作，构建中国企业为主导的全球价值链。

关键词：流通业  对外直接投资  投资收益  无店铺零售  全球价值链 

OutboundDirect Investment of US Distribution Industry: Features,

Experiencesand Implications

Yuan Pinghong and Jing Linbo

Chinacan strengthen its economic and trade prowess through expanding the outbounddirect investment of its distribution industry, which will promote the role ofsuch industry in bridging global production and consumption. The country canlearn from experiences of the developed countries in making outbound directinvestment in the distribution industry so that it can improve the quality ofits own outbound direct investment in this sector. Drawing from experiences ofthe US, China should expand its outbound direct investment in the distributionindustry during the 13th Five-year Plan period (2016-20) and carry out thefollowing tasks: It should make sure the indigenous distribution enterprisescan fully dominate the domestic market, which will provide a solid foundationfor the country’s outbound direct investment in the distribution industry; itshould make a national strategy and devise relevant policies to guide thedirection of such investment to ensure safety and returns of investment; and itshould promote the coordination between the distribution industry and otherindustries in making such investment to build a global value chain dominated byChinese enterprises. 

非传统货币政策的理论、效果及启示             巴曙松   曾智   王昌耀 

前瞻性指引、量化宽松、负利率、中国结构性货币政策等非传统货币政策的相继实施，扩展了货币政策的理论边界。货币政策不仅能解决总量需求、系统性金融风险，也能解决宏观经济存在的结构性问题。本文先从理论基础、主要工具、传导渠道三个方面对非传统货币政策进行了较为系统、深入的分析。在此基础上，通过事件研究法以中欧为例评估实施效果，发现非传统货币政策能够显著地降低货币市场和债券市场的利率，维护金融稳定；随着工具的持续使用，实施效果边际递减；中国结构性货币政策工具的效果显著强于其他工具。最后，本文从工具本身的弊端、注重市场机制、外溢和退出风险、创新工具四点出发，给出了中国完善结构性货币政策的政策建议。

关键词：负利率  量化宽松  结构性  非传统货币政策  金融稳定

Theory,Effect and Implications of Unconventional Monetary Policies

Ba Shusong, Zeng Zhi and Wang Changyao  

Forwardguidance, quantitative easing, negative interest rate — China’s adoption ofstructural monetary policy and other non-traditional monetary policies hasexpanded the theoretical boundaries of monetary policy. Monetary policy can notonly increase total demand and reduce systemic financial risks but also solvethe structural macroeconomic problems. This article makes a systematic analysisof non-traditional monetary policies from three perspectives: theoreticalbasis, tool classification and transmission channel. On the basis of theanalysis, it adopts the event study method to evaluate the effect of suchpolicies by European Central Bank and People’s Bank of China and finds thatnon-traditional monetary policies can significantly reduce the interest rate ofthe money and bond markets to ensure financial stability. With the continualuse of the tool, the effect diminishes, and in China, structural monetarypolicy tools are significantly stronger than others. Finally, this articleprovides advices on improving

China’sstructural monetary policy from the perspectives of drawbacks of the tool,emphasis on market mechanism, spillover and exit risks, market mechanism andtool innovation.

延伸阅读：

【目录】《国际经济评论》2018年第1期

 【目录】《国际经济评论》2017年第6期

【目录】《国际经济评论》2017年第5期

【目录】《国际经济评论》2017年第4期 

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