人类命运共同体的构建与中国战略机遇期的存续　　　　　　　　　丁工

 　　随着全球各国前途相通、命运相联程度的日益加深，需要各国协同合作解决的跨国性、世界性问题大幅增多，中国战略机遇期已由突出“随势”和“用势”向强调“谋势”和“造势”演化。当前，战略机遇期已经不单是中国独享自用的有利时机，还是为增进人类共同利益贡献智慧、力量、方案的特殊阶段。中国若想更好地维系、善用战略机遇期，以人类命运共同体的新视角与合作共赢的新思路来应对风险、化解挑战，就成为中国思考对外战略路径模式的必然选择。因此，中国应牢牢把握建设人类命运共同体这条贯穿始终的主线，努力将维系和延续中国战略机遇期同全球人民的发展前景对接起来，最终形成人类命运共同体和中国战略机遇期的相辅相成、相得益彰。

　　关键词：人类命运共同体  合作共赢  战略机遇期  一带一路  新型国际关系

Building of Community of Common Destiny forMankind and China’s Strategic pportunities　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　Ding Gong      　As the connectivity of the world deepens,there have been increasing numbers of transnational and global challenges thatrequire all countries to work together to tackle.  China also needs to rethink its strategicopportunities and take a more pro-active approach to create strategicopportunities. At present, while it benefits from its strategic opportunities,China can also use its strategic opportunities to contribute to global wisdomand, together with other countries, find solutions to global challenges topromote common interests of the world. If it wants to benefit more from itsstrategic opportunities, China needs to adopt a new approach in tackling risksand challenges; it needs to look at global issues from the perspective ofcommunity of common destiny and carry out cooperation with other countries toachieve a win-win result, which should become an inevitable part of its foreignstrategic roadmap. China should stick to the main task of building humancommunity of common destiny and match its strategic opportunities with thedevelopment prospects of the world so that ultimately, both objectives can bepromoted.

 世界银行在全球发展进程中的角色、优势和主要挑战　　　　　　　宋锦

 　　在全球发展进程中，世界银行作为最有影响力的国际组织，为发展中国家提供发展援助资金，深度参与政策讨论，提供技术支持，共享知识产品。在推动全球发展进程中，世界银行具有三个鲜明的优势，一是广阔的全球视野和丰富的国际经验，二是强政策影响力，三是先进的项目管理方法和援助效果评估技术。近年来，世行在发展政策上的领导力和权威性在下降，主要的问题包括提供发展融资支持的影响力弱化，资金支持、政策分析和技术援助对于推动国家长期发展的效果有待完善，内部管理低效、不同部门的政策发声没有合力、发展政策产品的平均质量下降等。在未来的全球发展协商机制中，世行应在创新发展融资模式、推动私营部门进行发展融资领域方面发挥积极作用，还应着眼于中长期全球经济增长，加强发达国家与发展中国家的协调合作，深入在一系列全球性问题、关键话题和前瞻性领域的研究，并引领相应的政策讨论。

　　关键词：世界银行  发展融资  发展政策

World Bank in Global Development: Role,Advantage and Main Challenges　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　Song Jin                    The World Bank, one of the most influentialinternational organizations that provide development aid, has helped implementglobal development agenda through in-depth policy discussion, provision oftechnical support and sharing of knowledge products. In pushing forward globaldevelopment, it has had three significant advantages, including wide globalvision and rich international experiences, strong influence on policymaking,and mature project management and impact evaluation methodology. In recentyears, the bank’s leadership and authority in development policy discussion hasweakened. The main problems include reduced influence in development aidprovision, unclear effect of funding and knowledge support for pushing forwardthe long-term development of recipient countries, low efficiency of internalcoordination and inconsistent policy assertion of different departments, andreduced average quality of research products. The bank should make more effortsto provide innovative development financing models and help private sector tohave access to development financing in global development negotiationmechanism in the future; it should also focus on promotion of mid- andlong-term global economic growth, strengthen coordination and cooperationbetween developed and developing countries, deepen frontier research on majorglobal issues, and lead relevant policy discussion.  

中日美人口世代的界定与对宏观经济的启示　　　　　　　周晓波   杨华磊

 　　随着婴儿潮和婴儿谷世代依次进入劳动力市场，历史上的美国和日本相应地出现了人口红利期和人口红利消失期，但是在1990年之后，美国经济打破了人口学的诅咒，而日本经济却一直严格受到人口学规律的支配，呈现低迷。与此同时，中国经验结果表明，1990年前的人口世代进入劳动力市场的时期，中国经济严格受到人口学规律支配。未来中国要做的是，吸取日本教训，参照美国经验，要像美国1990年代以后那样，打破出生率下降的人口规律对经济增速支配的诅咒。在适龄劳动人口减少的背景下，采取合适的养老制度，如自己养自己的储蓄或者积累制养老，给劳动人口和财政减压，增加储蓄，提高资本的积累效应，降低人口世代更迭对宏观经济的负面影响，为长期结构性改革赢得时间。

　　关键词：人口世代  婴儿潮  婴儿谷  宏观经济  人口诅咒

Definition and Macroeconomic Implicationsof Generation Group in China, Japan and the US　　　　　　　　　　　　Zhou Xiaobo and Yang Hualei    　　This article analyzes the impacts of babyboom and baby bust on economic growth and offers suggestions on how to breakpopulation curse. It first defines and compares baby boom and baby bust in theUS, Japan and China through analysis of birth statistics. Further researchfinds that, along with baby boom in the US and Japan entering the labor market,there is a corresponding emergence of demographic dividend and disappearance ofdemographic dividend in history. After 1990, however, the US economy broke thedemography curse while the Japanese economy had been strictly governed bydemography law; at the same time, empirical results show that the Chineseeconomy had been strictly governed by demographic law before the post-1990sentered the labor market. The article provides an explanation for China’seconomic downturn after 2008, arguing that it may be related to baby bust.

 共享经济：本质、机制、模式与风险　　　　　　　　　　　　　郑联盛

 　　共享经济是基于技术手段提升闲置资源利用效率的新范式，以平台化、高效化、开放性和分布式作为特征，整合多种要素及资源配置机制，已成为一种盘活存量、提升效率和增进服务的重要举措。共享经济基于所有权和使用权分离，利用信息脱域和新的信用机制，依托多方市场平台实现需求、供给和匹配机制的融合，降低交易成本，实现长尾效应和规模效应。共享经济基本覆盖了主要生活场景，以商品再分配、有形产品服务、非有形资源协作式分享以及开放协作共享等为主要业务模式。共享经济存在复杂的法律关系结构，对现有制度适宜性提出了挑战，同时存在委托代理、新垄断方式以及信息安全等问题。未来共享经济将呈现服务科技化、科技智能化以及服务场景化等趋势，共享经济需要重点解决所有权与使用权分离、连接机制稳定性以及与监管框架关系等问题，政府应积极鼓励共享经济发展，坚持包容性监管原则，构建主动长效监管机制。

　　关键词：共享经济  内在机制  业务模式  风险 

Sharing Economy: Essence, Mechanism, Modelsand Risks　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　Zheng Liansheng                       The sharing economy is a new paradigm oftechnology to promote utilization efficiency of "idle" resourcesbased on efficient, open and decentralized platforms. Through integratingvarieties of elements and resource allocation mechanisms, the sharing economyhas become a major way to revitalize stocks, raise allocation efficiency andimprove services. Based on separation of ownership and right of use, itutilizes information disembodying and new credit mechanism to integrate demand,supply and matching mechanism based on multiple market platforms, lowertransaction costs, achieve the long-tail effect and promote economy of scale.Covering main living scenes, the sharing economy has four major businessmodels: goods redistribution, sharing of tangible products, sharing ofintangible resources, and open and collaborative sharing. However, the sharingeconomy has very complicated legal relationship structures that challenge thesuitability of the existing regulatory system. Meanwhile, there are some newchallenges to be tackled, such as principal agent problem, new monopoly modeand information security. In the future, the sharing economy may evolve in thedirection of scenes-based service and service-driven technology. It needs tofocus on the separation of ownership and right of use, stability of connectionmechanisms, and regulatory framework relationships. The government shouldactively encourage the development of sharing economy, adhere to inclusiveregulatory principles, and establish an effective, efficient and long-termregulatory system.

货币寻锚的历史回顾与当下困局　　　　　　　　张广斌   张绍宗   王源昌

 　　纯粹称量货币时期，货币以自身价值为锚，货币与商品是等量的价值交换，多余的货币被储藏起来，货币寻锚不是全球货币体系的主要问题。信用纸币出现以后，货币发行在钉住贵金属和适应经济增长之间出现矛盾，以政府信用为锚不得不走向前台，然而，无约束政府信用为锚引起了世界货币体系混乱，在此条件下，美国以其大量的黄金储备和强劲的经济表现，主导了布雷顿森林体系建立。不幸的是，美国黄金储备流失，布雷顿森林体系崩溃，但万幸的是，美国经济依然强劲，美元仍然是最主要的储备货币。美国以外的其他国家出于储备丧失和债务成本上升的担忧，其汇率基本选择了钉住美元，美国出于网络外部性的要求也控制了通货膨胀。但时过境迁，随着欧元区的成立和东亚经济的强势崛起，货币区域集团的趋势越来越明显，对美元的外部驻锚地位形成了挑战，并且货币供给量的长时间缓慢扩张，也导致以通货膨胀率为下锚走到了失效边缘。依此，本文在结论部分提出了货币寻锚的方向，以特别提款权（SDR）为中心重塑汇率外部驻锚，以利率为纽带再造政府信用内部驻锚。毋庸置疑，在这一过程中，中国的身影不应缺失。

　　关键词：货币寻锚  政府信用  主要储备货币

Currency Anchor Options: Historical Reviewand Current Predicament

Zhang Guangbin, Zhang Shaozong and WangYuanchang                 

　　In the era of metal currency, it was not abig challenge to search for a currency anchor. However, with the emergence ofpaper money, the unconstrained government credit had led to the distortion ofthe global monetary system, and it had become a major challenge to find ananchor. Against that backdrop, the US, supported by its large gold reserves andstrong economic performance, led other countries to establish the Bretton Woodssystem. Unfortunately, the Bretton Woods system collapsed, but fortunately, theUS economy remained sound, and the dollar remained a major reserve currency.Worried about their loss of reserves and rise in debt costs, many countrieshave chosen to peg their currencies to the dollar while the US managed to putits inflation under control to minimize externalities. With the establishmentof the euro zone and the rapid economic growth of East Asia, the trend ofregional monetary zone has become more and more obvious, which poses achallenge to the dollar’s role as an external anchor. In addition, the slow andcontinuous expansion of money supply has also fatally affected the anchoringeffect of inflation. In conclusion, the article suggests that the world shouldre-shape an SDR-centered external anchor and make use of interest rates toestablish an internal anchor based on government credit.

果如所料还是迟迟未到：全球流动性步入拐点了吗？　　　张天顶   龙   鑫

 　　 当前全球流动性动态引起了时评人士、金融市场参与者以及现实问题研究者们的高度关注，甚至出现了关于全球流动性是否步入拐点的激烈辩论。本文对不同的流动性概念进行辨析，强调了探讨全球流动性动态问题的两项基准：需要注重把握流动性内涵以及注重区分短期或中长期效应。借助于现实统计数据以及金融市场交易数据，本文分别从数量和价格两个尺度对全球流动性动态进行测量。实证结果表明当前美联储加息并没有引致中长期意义上全球流动性拐点，全球流动性动态不仅仅受制于美国货币政策因素，而且是全球范围内主要国家的宏观经济因素、货币政策、汇率体制、资本项目开放政策、金融规制以及金融市场参与者和金融媒介行为特征等多种因素交互作用下的综合体现。最后，本文从政策制定视角提供了若干建议。

　　关键词：全球流动性  拐点  数量指标  价格指标  政策调适

Expected or Delayed: Is Global Liquidity’sTurning Point Coming?

Zhang Tianding and Long Xin                                     

　　The global liquidity dynamics has made theheadlines and drawn much attention of various market players. Whether anunprecedented turning point has come is debated intensively. This article providesanalysis of the different concepts of global liquidity frequently used in newsmedia reports and argues that in analyzing the global liquidity dynamics,researchers should clarify the connotation of global liquidity and analyze thedifferences of short-term and mid- and long-term effects. Based on economicstatistics and market data, the article measures the dynamics of globalliquidity from the dimensions of quantity and price. The results indicate thatthe turning point of global liquidity has not come as a result of the US Fed’sinterest rate hikes and the dynamics of global liquidity is not decided by thepolicy stance of the US Federal Reserve alone. Rather, it is a result ofinteractions among multiple factors, such as macroeconomic conditions, monetarypolicy stance, exchange rate regime, capital account opening-up policy,financial regulation, and behavior of financial market players andintermediaries of major economies. The article also provides advices forpolicymakers.

 美国经济活力下降：事实、原因及后果　　　　　　　　　　　　曹永福

　　近期美国经济活力下降的问题引起学界关注，该问题主要表现为新公司创立速度降低、上市公司数量回落、中小企业成长潜力缩小、公司出现老龄化等等，此外劳动力市场流动性下降也与上述现象有关。经济活力下降并非短期周期性现象，而是各种深层次因素作用的结果。它意味着大公司市场主导地位有所增强，新企业处于更不利的竞争位置；它对技术创新的影响有些争议，但新老企业间“创造性破坏”效应减弱整体上不利于技术创新；经济活力下降也会影响美国的中长期经济增长后劲。

　　关键词：经济活力创业精神 创造性破坏 政府规制 知识经济

Declining Business Dynamism in the US:Facts, Causes and Implications

　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　Cao Yongfu              The declining dynamism of US businesses,which has aroused much attention from the academic circle, is mainly reflectedby the declining growth of corporate start-ups, falling numbers of IPO,weakening growth potential of SMEs, aging of firms, and declining of labormarket mobility. The declining business dynamism is not a short-term cyclicalphenomenon; it has been caused by some long-term and institutional factors. Itmeans the market dominance of large firms has been on the rise while newentrants are put at a disadvantage; its impact on technological innovation,however, is controversial, but anyway, the declining "creative destructioneffect" on the whole dampens technological innovation. The fallingbusiness dynamism can also affect the mid- and long-term economic growthpotential of the US.

关于设立亚洲基础设施投资银行投资争端解决中心的探讨　　黄进   孔庆江

 　 亚洲基础设施投资银行是否能够在众多多边区域性机构中脱颖而出、永续经营，取决于这些争端能否有效和公平地得到解决。为此，建议设立亚洲基础设施投资银行投资争端解决中心（ACSID），为银行与银行客户之间的争端、使用亚投行贷款的私人客户与成员方之间的投资争端、亚投行所资助或投资的项目的当事人之间的争端等，提供独立、公正、有效的解决渠道。

　　关键词：亚洲基础设施投资银行  ACSID  仲裁

Establishment of AIIB Centre for Settlementof International Disputes: A Preliminary Feasibility Study　　　　　Huang Jin and Kong Qingjiang               　As the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank(AIIB) unfolds its business, more and more disputes are expected to arisebetween the bank and its clients. While competing with other multilateraldevelopment banks, the AIIB must find a way to have such disputes resolvedeffectively, independently and fairly to sustain its development. This articleoffers a preliminary feasibility study of establishing the AIIB Centre for theSettlement of Investment Disputes.

委内瑞拉超级通货膨胀和经济衰退探源　　　　　　　　　　贺力平   马伟

　　委内瑞拉经济形势近年来快速恶化，在2016年陷入超级通胀和深度衰退。流行看法是委内瑞拉遭受到“荷兰病”困扰，并受到“异常贸易”的不利冲击。本文的对比分析表明，“荷兰病”理论至多可解释委内瑞拉的经济下行，但无法说明其深度衰退和超级通胀。中美两国与委内瑞拉双边贸易的对比分析也表明，导致委内瑞拉对外贸易出现不利变化的主要因素除了国际油价的下跌外还有其国内经济问题。本文认为，委内瑞拉当前经济问题的根源在于经济政策的偏差，尤其是长期以来追求财政支出扩张和外汇管制。外汇管制导致市场汇率与官方汇率的分离，并在一定条件下促使市场汇率（“平行汇率”）成为引导委内瑞拉人民汇率预期和通胀预期的重要指示器。当国内经济其他方面在2013年出现不利转变迹象后，市场汇率更加突出地发挥了助推通货膨胀不断升高的作用。通胀高企本身也加重了委内瑞拉的国内经济困难，给政府带来更大的财政压力。委内瑞拉正面临一个两难局面：要么进一步加强管制，要么在国际协助下全面放松，第三条“中间道路”很难行得通。

　　关键词：委内瑞拉  超级通货膨胀  外汇管制  平行汇率

Venezuela’s Hyperinflation and EconomicWoes: Causes and Implications　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　He Liping and Ma Wei                The Venezuelan economy has deterioratedrapidly since 2015 and has been trapped in hyperinflation and economicrecession since last year. Analysts have generally attributed the deterioratingVenezuelan economy to the so-called "Dutch disease" and abnormaltrade relations. Our analysis shows that "Dutch disease", at most,may be accountable for Venezuela’s economic downturn since 2014,when world oil prices began to fall, but it has little relevance to thecountry’s deep recession and hyperinflation. Study of Venezuela’s bilateraltrade relations with China and the US shows that the main culprit of the itseconomic deterioration is its domestic economic problems. The article arguesthat Venezuela’s current economic problems are rooted in its economic policymaking, especially the Venezuelan government’s incessant pursuit ofexpansionary fiscal spending and blatant foreign exchange controls. The latterhas resulted in unstoppable currency devaluation expectations and domesticinflation expectation, both of which have further driven up currencydevaluation and inflation surges. In turn, the rising inflation aggravates theeconomy and public finance in Venezuela. A hard choice facing Venezuela iseither to further tighten foreign exchange controls, or deregulate the economywith aids from the international community. There could not be any "thirdway" that would work.

非洲银行业竞争格局及中非银行业合作空间               黄梅波   沈婧

        近年来，非洲各国积极推进非洲金融业的发展与改革，非洲银行业表现出巨大的发展潜力。在“中非十大合作”战略框架下，中非金融合作，特别是中非银行业合作也在日益加强。本文首先分析非洲银行业现状，认为近年来非洲银行业整体发展势头良好，电子银行与跨国银行迅速崛起，但银行分支机构普及率较低、银行业高度集中的问题仍然存在。其次，对非洲各地区代表性国家银行机构从一级资本增长率、资本回报率、成本收益率等方面进行银行竞争力分析。最后，从中非银行业合作模式、合作领域及人民币国际化等三方面考察中非银行业合作，并对未来中非银行业的合作趋势提出建议。

    关键词：中非银行业合作  中非金融合作  人民币国际化

Competition of Banks in Africa andChina-Africa Banking Cooperation

Huang Meibo and Shen Jing  

      African countries have actively promotedthe development and reform of their financial industry in recent years and thecontinent’s banking industry has shown great potential of development. Underthe strategic framework of the Ten China-Africa Major Cooperation Plans, thefinancial cooperation between China and Africa, especially in the bankingindustry, has been increasingly strengthened. This article analyzes the currentconditions of the banking industry in Africa. The overall development momentumof the banking industry in Africa is strong, and electronic banking andmultinational banks have expanded rapidly. Problems include low penetrationrate and over-concentration. The article analyzes the competitiveness of majorbanks in Africa based on such indicators as Tier 1 capital growth, returns oninvestment, and cost-benefit ratio. Finally, the article analyzes bankingcooperation model, fields of cooperation and RMB internationalization involvedin China-Africa banking cooperation before putting forward some suggestionsregarding the trends of China-Africa banking cooperation in the future.

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