摘要

In this paper we document that, among candidates for China’s Politburo, those with hometown or college ties to incumbent Politburo members are less likely to be elected. Our results are of particular note because they stand in sharp contrast to the findings of earlier papers. We examine heterogeneity in the connections penalty, and observe that it is much stronger for ties to more junior Politburo members, which suggests that competition among officials with shared backgrounds may at least partly explain our main results. The fact that we observe a similar connections penalty for ties to retiring and non-retiring Politburo members argues against quota-based explanations. 

Because our results contrast with those of earlier papers, we delve into the features of our estimation to account for the differences in findings. We suggest that both the type of shared background that one uses to measure connections, as well as the use of within- versus between-group variation, can help to explain our findings of a connections penalty.

Taking a broader view, our main analysis and findings emphasize also the care required in analyzing observational data on connections. In particular, in considering the full set of potential explanations for our results, we highlight the nuanced relationship between shared backgrounds and promotion. And by comparing results based on within- versus between-group variation, we show how cross-sectional analyses may be biased toward finding a positive effect of connections when none exists.