因学术而思想 因思想而光华︱2023北大光华经济金融校友学术论坛圆满收官

论坛部分校友合影及现场照片

以学术为本，笃定前行，共筑思想光华！近日，第四届北大光华经济金融校友学术论坛成功举办。大雪初霁的燕园迎来了国内外100多位学者校友及热爱学术的校友，大家一同分享了经济、金融及管理领域的重要研究成果，用思想之力标定未来的方向。论坛由北京大学光华管理学院应用经济学系和金融学系发起，联合校友事务中心、管理学博士联合培养项目、本研项目和行政中心共同举办，旨在传承光华“以学术为本”、“因思想•而光华”的坚定信念，为校友提供一个自由交流学术的平台，在切磋进益中激发光华人的学术热情。学院金融学系副教授卢瑞昌担任全场活动主持。

卢瑞昌教授

主论坛

北京大学光华管理学院刘俏院长在开场致辞中强调了学院在这一轮双一流建设中的学科发展情况，工商管理学和应用经济学都确认了一批重点发展的领域，过去两年，光华梳理出一系列重要的科学问题，通过有组织科研的方式力争形成一批处于学科前沿的成果。2022年推出全新的学术期刊——《经济管理学刊》，希望用科学理性的方法，去研究真正有价值的问题。“光华思想力”智库建设方面，产生了一系列富有实效的研究成果，一些高质量报告为国家制定“十四五”规划提供了科学依据，以“中国REITs市场建设”为主题的研究直接参与推动了中国公募REITs市场的诞生与发展等。在人才培养方面，刘俏院长特别提到了北大光华“未来领导者”本科项目。他表示，该项目从全世界顶尖商学院的学生中优中选优，将这些多元文化背景的优秀学子荟聚到光华，让来自世界各地的有志青年们深度了解中国，培养他们成为新型全球化的未来领导者。同时，光华国际博士生项目2020年启动，全面采用英文授课，面向全球有志于挖掘基本规律贡献学术新知的学子招生，致力于培养能够胜任高水平的大学、研究机构的教学与学术研究工作的国际学者。最后，刘俏院长希望所有校友能在光华这个思想大平台上发光发热，推动社会进步，因思想而光华。

刘俏院长

接下来，学院本研项目执行主任、应用经济学系教授翁翕，金融学系副系主任、副教授王亚平分别分享了学院应用经济学系和金融学系的发展近况及学术动态。翁翕教授着重从应用经济学系的QS排名、重点发展的学科领域、人才引进和培养等几个方面展开介绍。王亚平教授着重介绍了近几年加入金融学系的优秀年轻老师以及他们的论文研究，表示新教员的加入为金融学系增添了更多活力。最后两位教授都期待校友们能与系里进行持续的合作和研究。

（左：翁翕教授  右：王亚平教授）

经济金融分论坛

主会场结束后，学院金融学系副教授王亚平、金融学系教授贾春新和应用经济学系助理教授Lukas Hensel分别担任了分会场主持人，围绕“中国经济与金融体系”、“大数据与文本分析和消费”、“劳动力市场与机制设计”三大主题继续分享和讨论，9位学术校友分享了他们的最新研究成果。

分论坛主持人

感谢以下9位献上精彩学术报告的光华校友（按发言顺序排序）

【中国经济与金融体系】

（左：江萍校友 中：谭娅校友 右：谢晓晨校友）

【大数据与文本分析】

（左：张红校友 中：曾建光校友 右：关冲校友）

【消费、劳动力市场与机制设计】

（左：陈靖校友 中：赵浩校友 右：黄娅娜校友）

管理学博士联合培养项目分论坛

为了更好地连接全球前沿学术思想和最新商业实践，本届论坛特别设置了光华管理学博士联合培养项目专场，学院本研项目执行主任、应用经济学系教授翁翕担任主持，院长助理、管理学博士联合培养项目执行主任王冬霞老师对本项目情况做了详细介绍，5位嘉宾分享内容干货满满，跨界交流碰撞出了更多思想的火花。

感谢以下5位献上精彩学术报告的光华校友（按发言顺序排序）

 （左：高勇校友 右：李巍校友）

学术研究是一项艰苦的旅程，正是有了校友们对学术的热爱和坚持，光华这棵长青之树才会更加枝繁叶茂、硕果累累。2024，期待与各位校友再相聚！

论文摘要概览

中国经济与金融体系

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Navigating Political Risks: The Role of Firm Political Alignment

江萍（对外经济贸易大学）

合作者：Jing Li （西蒙弗雷泽大学）、Minjia Li（英属哥伦比亚大学）、Jenny Li Zhang（英属哥伦比亚大学）

论文摘要：We examine the determinants and consequences of an important but understudied strategy in managing political risks—firm political alignment (FPA). Using a GPT large language model, we measure FPA as the extent to which firms align their actions and commitments with government agendas as presented in annual reports.  Leveraging two political events in China, we find that: 1) as the anti-corruption campaign that started in 2012 and later spread across different provinces serves as a staggered shock that reduces the effectiveness of political ties, firms increase their FPA in response; 2) the extent of FPA largely mitigates the negative market reaction around the announcement of the common prosperity policy in 2021 which heightens policy uncertainty for non-state-owned firms. Overall, our findings provide novel evidence that firms engage in FPA to manage political risk.

From Connections to Merit: Anti-Corruption Reform and Occupational Mobility in China’s Civil Service

谭娅（对外经济贸易大学）

合作者：昂歌尔（加州大学洛杉矶分校）、秦雨（新加坡国立大学）、张帆（对外经济贸易大学）

论文摘要：In China, being employed in the public sector as a civil servant is perceived as the primary pathway to leadership roles in the government. This paper examines the role of family background in shaping the choice to enter the civil service and investigates the impact of the anti-corruption campaign, which began in 2012, on this process. While we find that college graduates whose parents hold managerial roles in the civil service are more likely to take a civil service job, by using a difference-in-differences approach we demonstrate that such occupational persistence decreased by 18% after the anti-corruption campaign. We further demonstrate that the primary mechanism driving this change is a reduction in the use of social networks by parents to help their children secure civil servant positions. Our findings provide insight into the role of social networks in shaping occupational outcomes in China and suggest that anti-corruption efforts have had significant intergenerational impacts beyond the incumbents.

Survival and Growth of Small and Mid-Sized Firms: Evidence from Corporate Income Tax Cuts in China

谢晓晨（中国人民大学）

合作者：贾俊雪（中国人民大学）、马光荣（中国人民大学）、汤子杰（中国人民大学）

论文摘要：Our study examines China's notch-based corporate income tax cuts from 2014 to 2018 aimed at aiding small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Analyzing tax data, we find that these cuts both encourage covered SMEs to boost production and prompt some above-notch firms to reduce production for tax arbitrage. Then we develop a structural model illustrating tax policy's substantial impact on firm output. Our counterfactual analysis assesses policy implications on economic output and SME expansion. Ultimately, we compare support policies, suggesting that kink-based tax cuts and size-based precision subsidies may achieve tax revenue goals more efficiently while stimulating SMEs like notch-based policies.

大数据与文本分析

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BigTech Finance Usage and Household Agricultural Income: Evidence from China

张红（暨南大学）

合作者：王悦静（暨南大学）、汪小圈（华东师范大学）

论文摘要：Based on a Chinese BigTech finance usage index and household data from China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), our paper analyzes the causal impact and mechanism of BigTech finance usage on household agricultural income. Results show that BigTech finance usage significantly improves household agricultural income, and findings are robust after considering sample selection, omitted variables, and instrumental variables. Mechanism analysis implies that BigTech finance usage can affect household agricultural income by easing household budget constraints and promoting risk-resistance capacity, and consequently increasing agricultural inputs and improving agricultural production efficiency. Moreover, the impact of BigTech finance usage primarily benefits marginal households with lowest-income, moderate level of ability and knowledge, who face insufficient access to traditional financial services, as well as in areas with lower traditional financial development and in households without bank loans. These distributional effects shed light on the potential of BigTech finance in fostering financial inclusion and enhancing welfare.

Cybersecurity Perception and Market Excess Returns under Algorithm Optimization

曾建光（重庆大学）

合作者：陈文（南京农业大学）

论文摘要：How does the level of risk perception of internet security (cybersecurity perception) by investors affect the asset prices of internet wealth management? In the current era of continuously optimizing artificial intelligence algorithms, will algorithm optimization actually impact the perception of cybersecurity? Using the algorithm update of Baidu's search index in 2018 as an external event and the Baidu search index for the term "Yu'ebao stolen" as a proxy variable to measure the perception of cybersecurity, this paper examines the influence of cybersecurity perception on the seven-day excess return of Yu'ebao in order to address the aforementioned questions. Our studies have found that an increase in the perception of cybersecurity significantly increases market returns. However, there is no significant difference between the relevant indices and excess market returns when using two different artificial intelligence algorithms. The above findings confirm the existence of the revenue compensation effect on the perception of cybersecurity. However, they also indicate that algorithm upgrades have not had a significant impact on cybersecurity perception. The instrumental variable test, which is based on the proportion of Android system usage in the installation of apps on smartphones, supports the robustness of the conclusions. Heterogeneity testing shows that optimizing the algorithm reduces the sensitivity of excess market returns to cybersecurity perception when the yield of Yu'ebao is low. However, in the case of tight monetary policy, optimizing algorithms increase the sensitivity of excess market returns to cybersecurity perception. Further research has found that a stronger perception of cybersecurity will increase the willingness of Yu'ebao investors to participate in the stock market. Strengthening cybersecurity awareness helps enhance investors' ability to bear market risks.

Navigating Success in Carbon Offset Projects: A Deep Dive  into the Determinants using Topic Modeling   

关冲（新加坡新跃社科大学）

合作者：Chongwu Xia（新加坡新跃社科大学）、Ding Ding（新加坡新跃社科大学）、Teng Yun（新加坡新跃社科大学）

论文摘要：Carbon offset projects play a crucial role in tackling the global challenge of climate change. 9 However, there is limited understanding of the factors contributing to the success of a carbon offset 10 project. In this study, we utilize the latent Dirichlet allocation method to extract topics from the 11 descriptions of carbon offset projects sourced from the Gold Standard Foundation. Our findings 12 reveal that projects encompassing both safety and efficient cooking stoves for households command 13 higher prices. These results imply that an effective carbon offset project should mitigate individual 14 household emissions while enhancing safety. Our research carries significant implications for stake-15 holders involved in carbon offset projects and can serve as a foundation for policy formulation and 16 standard regulations.

消费、劳动力市场与机制设计

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Local shock Experience, Beliefs and Scarred Consumption  

陈靖（中国农业大学）

合作者：Tianyuan Jiang（中央财经大学）、Manling Zhang（吉林大学）

论文摘要：This paper represents the first attempt to show how local shock experiences help explain the sluggish trajectory of household consumption. Using a large-scale household survey with 16,507 observations combined with geospatial transportation big data, we identify a novel belief-updating mechanism through which crises may exert prolonged impacts on consumption patterns. A one standard deviation increase in local shock experience is associated with a 10.82% reduction in daily household consumption. We demonstrate that an experience-based learning perspective lends support to resolving the long-lasting overreactions to negative shocks via belief revisions. Additionally, we find that households with different individual-based shock experiences may exhibit varying perceptions of external shocks, resulting in disparate belief revision processes. While working in the public sector stabilizes beliefs, job loss experiences function to amplify shocks.

An efficient mechanism to mitigate stock externalities in rights-based common-pool resource management: Theory and experiments 

赵浩（中国人民大学）

合作者：David Porter（查普曼大学）

论文摘要：The inter-temporal resource allocation efficiency of a rights-based common-pool resource management system is threatened by a stock externality when one user’s extraction lowers the resource stock and raises the extraction cost for others. This paper proposes a novel decentralized rights-based allocation mechanism (DRAM) to restore the efficiency loss. DRAM includes two stages. In a voting stage, agents collectively determine a binding extraction target for each period via weighted majority voting; in a market stage, agents trade extraction rights assigned to them within each period. We build a theoretical model to illustrate the efficiency loss from a standard property rights market and demonstrate that DRAM can implement the socially optimal allocation under mild conditions. Labo- ratory experiments confirm that DRAM outperforms the standard property rights market in aggregate economic efficiency.

MULAN in the name: Causes and consequences of gendered Chinese names

黄娅娜 （中国社会科学院）

合作者：王天宇（中国人民大学）

论文摘要：Drawing on data from the 2005 China mini-census, this study aims to measure the genderedness of Chinese names and explore the determinants of gendered names and their impacts on a range of economic outcomes. The Gendered Name Index we constructed shows that male and female names have been converging over the past century, mainly attributed to the defeminization of female names. A regression analysis reveals that the gender characteristics of Chinese names are highly correlated with parental characteristics, the strength of kinship networks, and local socioeconomic conditions. Additionally, the genderedness of a name has mild but statistically significant effects on a series of life-cycle outcomes. Notably, a more masculine name for a man would likely result in longer education time, later marriage, and better performance in the labor market. In contrast, a more feminine name for a woman would bring about opposite outcomes. These findings support both gender identity and gender discrimination mechanisms.

管理学博士联合培养项目分论坛

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企业创新意愿与资本市场反映——基于年报文本信息的证据

高勇（上海安硕信息技术股份有限公司董事长）

论文摘要：创新活动是一个国家经济实力与活力的集中体现。如何正确评价和分析企业的创新活动、评估企业创新对企业价值的影响，具有重要的政策意义和学术意义。以往的文献研究多侧重于评估已落地的创新硬信息（侧重“做”和“效”），如通过企业实际的研发、专利、高管特征等信息，来观测其对企业创新绩效、财务绩效等方面的影响。但这些维度信息都偏“事后”，不能及早捕捉并评估企业创新活动。本文以企业创新活动前期书面或口头披露的软信息（侧重“说”）来研究企业的创新意愿，并进一步探讨创新意愿对于公司未来股价表现和创新成果的影响。

基于投资视角的保险公司价值链研究

李巍（中再资产管理股份有限公司党委书记、总经理，中再资产（香港）董事长）

论文摘要：伴随中国经济发展，保险行业成长迅速，到2019年已成为全球第二大保险市场。但中国险业总体发展水平仍然较为滞后，发展不平衡、不充分的矛盾依然突出。这篇论文以投资视角对保险公司价值链模型进行了研究，分析投资业务在提升保险集团价值、风险管理和产品开发等层面的作用，并提出改善保险公司价值链的建议。

教育中的AI：政策、实践和中国实证

任萍萍（科大讯飞股份有限公司党委副书记、副总裁）

论文摘要：文章围绕人工智能技术(AI)在教育领域的应用展开。通过对中国“AI+教育”相关政策的梳理，结合大规模随机对照实验及因果效应分析，尝试评估AI技术(此处以科大讯飞设备为例)对中学生学业表现的影响。

信任冲击传导：风险感知、突显性反应，和信息披露

姜燕（中航信托总经理助理、家族信托事业部总经理）

论文摘要：保险业是经济运转的重要组成部分，需要实现自身高质量发展体现服务中国式现代化的价值。本篇论文将波特价值链理论模型拓展到保险公司经营领域，并基于投资视角对保险公司价值链模型进行研究，从商业价值和社会价值两个层面探讨保险投资活动对保险公司价值链的影响机制，通过实证和案例分析投资业务提升保险集团价值、风险管理以及产品开发和服务质量的影响，提出优化保险公司价值链、提升保险公司价值的建议，为落实加快建设金融强国、更好地发挥保险业的经济减震器和社会稳定器功能，提供了新的发展视角和现实路径。

法官激励与裁判行为——来自中国司法员额制改革的证据

宋云锋（大成（DENTONS）律师事务所高级合伙人）

论文摘要：法官虽然常常被认为是公平正义的象征，但是现实中法官在庭审决策时同样会受到外在激励的影响。员额制改革一方面会激励法官们勤勉工作，促使他们努力提高裁判效率和裁判质量；另一方面改革带来的过度激励可能会促使法官采取某些策略性的行为，并且这一做法可能会对裁判质量产生消极影响。

通过大量法律文书数据作为实证来源，作者尝试回答员额制改革如何影响法官的裁判行为、员额制改革如何影响案件的裁判质量等问题。

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