今年为什么热成这样？2022超强高温的底层逻辑——主要参考文献

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一、六月高温：双急流事件与“热穹顶”

图1. 研究人员利用三个大气环流型（北太平洋环流型、极地-太平洋-加拿大环流型和北美环流型）能够很好重建本次热浪过程[2]。

[1] Rousi, E., Kornhuber, K., beobide arsuaga, G., Luo, F., & Coumou, D. (2022). Accelerated western European heatwave trends linked to more-persistent double jets over Eurasia. Nature Communications, 13, 3851. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-31432-y  

[2] Wang, C., Zheng, J., Lin, W., Wang, Y., Wang, C., Zheng, J., Lin, W., & Wang, Y. (2022). Unprecedented Heatwave in Western North America during Late June of 2021: Roles of Atmospheric Circulation and Global Warming. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-022-2078-2  

二、七-八月高温：ENSO、IOD与南亚高压

a.  ENSO及其对东亚天气的影响机制

图2. ENSO的经典作用机制[5]。

[3] Wang, B., Wu, R., & Fu, J. X. (2000). Pacific-East Asian teleconnection: How does ENSO affect East Asian climate? Journal of Climate, 13, 1517-1536. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013 

[4] Xie, S.-P., Hu, K., Hafner, J., Tokinaga, H., Du, Y., Huang, G., & Sampe, T. (2009). Indian Ocean Capacitor Effect on Indo-Western Pacific Climate during the Summer following El Niño. Journal of Climate, 22, 730-747. https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2544.1 

[5] Xie, S.-P., Kosaka, Y., Du, Y., Hu, K., Chowdary, J., & Huang, G. (2015). Indo-western Pacific ocean capacitor and coherent climate anomalies in post-ENSO summer. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 33. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-015-5192-6 

[6] Fang, X.-H. et al., 2022: Will the history-record southeasterly wind over the equatorial Pacific in March 2022 trigger a third-year La Niña event? Adv. Atmos. Sci., https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-022-2147-6

[7] Wang, B., Xiang, B., & Lee, J.-Y. (2013). Subtropical High predictability establishes a promising way for monsoon and tropical storm predictions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 110, 2718-2722. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1214626110

b.  IOD与东亚气候

图3. 2022年5-7月负IOD事件发展过程，来自NOAA。

[8] Webster, P., Moore, A., Loschnigg, J., & Leben, R. (1999). Coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics in the Indian Ocean during 1997-98. Nature, 401, 356-360. https://doi.org/10.1038/43848 

[9] Zhou, Z.-Q., Xie, S.-P., & Zhang, R. (2021). Historic Yangtze flooding of 2020 tied to extreme Indian Ocean conditions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 118, e2022255118. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2022255118

[10] Cai, W., Santoso, A., Wang, G., Weller, E., Wu, L., Ashok, K., Masumoto, Y., & Yamagata, T. (2014). Increased frequency of extreme Indian Ocean Dipole events due to greenhouse warming. Nature, 510, 254-258. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature13327 

c. 南亚高压与东亚气候

图4. 青藏高原陆面过程、南亚高压、东亚季风与东亚气候[15]。

[11] Shi, J., & Qian, W. (2016). Connection between Anomalous Zonal Activities of the South Asian High and Eurasian Summer Climate Anomalies. Journal of Climate, 29. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0823.1 

[12] Wei, W., Zhang, R., Wen, M., Kim, B.-J., & Nam, J.-C. (2015). Interannual Variation of the South Asian High and Its Relation with Indian and East Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall. Journal of Climate, 28, 2623-2634. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00454.1

[13] Wei, W., Zhang, R., Wen, M., Rong, X., & Li, T. (2013). Impact of Indian summer monsoon on the South Asian High and its influence on summer rainfall over China. Climate Dynamics, 43, 1257-1269. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1938-y

[14] Huang, G., Qu, X., & Hu, K. (2011). The impact of the tropical Indian Ocean on South Asian High in boreal summer. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 28, 421-432. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-010-9224-y

[15] Wang, C. (2020). Land-surface processes and summer-cloud-precipitation characteristics in the Tibetan Plateau and their effects on downstream weather: a review and perspective. National Science Review, 7. https://doi.org/10.1093/nsr/nwz226

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