The mobile app gold rush may be over

移动应用的淘金热已退去

Ten years ago, Apple announced the iPhone, which soon gave birth to the App Store and the resulting broader app ecosystem. That industry has now matured, having reached critical mass, according to a new report from Flurry out this morning.

10年前，苹果推出了iPhone，App Store在一年多之后到来，带来了庞大的应用生态系统。根据市场研究公司 Flurry 本周发布的一份报告，目前这一行业已经成熟，覆盖了关键的大多数用户。

While there's still some growth to be seen - app usage is up 11 percent over last year, for example - that growth is slowing. And many app categories are now growing at the expense of others, when before, all were growing in tandem[串列的;一前一后地;协力地].

尽管行业仍在继续增长，例如去年应用使用量同比增长了11%，但这一增长正在放缓。许多应用门类的发展以牺牲其他应用为代价。以往，所有应用门类都会同时增长。

This indicates that apps have maxed out[用尽,用光(尤指钱)] on the finite resource that is users' time. That is, drawing attention to a new app will mean having to shift users away from others.

这表明，应用已瓜分了用户的全部时间资源。如果某款新应用想吸引用户，那么就需要从其他应用手中抢夺用户。

This could be a problem for new app businesses - especially those that mean to take on the incumbents like 2016's most used apps: Facebook, Messenger, Google, Gmail, Instagram, Amazon, Apple Music and others.

对于新的应用业务来说，这将是个问题。这些应用将需要面对市场领先者。2016年，领先的应用包括Facebook、Messenger、谷歌、Gmail、Instagram、亚马逊和Apple Music等等。

To generate its analysis, Flurry looks at the apps on its analytics platform. Flurry's footprint now includes the ability to track more than 940,000 apps across 2.1 billion devices in 3.2 billion sessions, offering deep insight to the state of the app ecosystem today.

Flurry的报告基于其分析平台。Flurry目前跟踪了21亿台设备中32亿次会话的超过 94 万个应用，从而深入了解当前的应用生态系统。

The firm found that overall app usage is only up a moderate amount - 11 percent year-over-year, compared with 58 percent in the 2015 annual report. However, time spent in apps is soaring, up 69 percent over last year.

Some apps are doing better than others, the report indicates.

Flurry发现，应用使用量整体的增长有限，同比增长率为11%，低于2015年的58%。然而，用户花在应用中的时间正在提高，同比增幅达到69%。

Some apps are doing better than others, the report indicates.

报告指出，某些应用的表现要好于其他应用。

Social networking and messaging applications, not surprisingly, had a great year, with session growth climbing 44 percent over 2015, and time spent in apps up a staggering[惊人的,令人震惊的] 394 percent year-over-year.

社交媒体和消息应用2016年的表现非常抢眼，会话数量同比增幅达到44%，而用户花在这些应用中的时间同比增长了394%。

The increases in these categories are due to a number of factors: the ubiquity of smart devices, faster mobile broadband, newer features that allow for voice and video calling, the combination of communication and entertainment that the apps allow for, the addition of live content, the aging of the "I Generation" (who were kids when smartphones arrived and are now teens with their own devices) and more.

这类应用的增长是由于一系列原因：无所不在的智能设备、更快的移动宽带、支持语音和视频通话的新功能、通信和娱乐工具的融合、直播内容的加入，以及“i一代”的成长。（在智能手机刚出现时，这一代人还是儿童，而目前已成长为拥有自主设备的十几岁年轻人）。

One factor Flurry didn't mention, but seems notable, is users' newer desire for more private socializing and sharing. This feels like a cultural response to an overall decline in user privacy, or at least an awareness of how un-private the web really is.

不过，Flurry 没有提到的一大因素在于，用户正期望更私密的社交和分享体验。这似乎是对用户隐私状况恶化的文化反应，或者说用户正意识到网络隐私问题。

Over the past few years, people have grown to understand how much what takes place on public social networks is watched, analyzed and used to generate big piles of personal data that's traded and sold to marketers and advertisers.

过去几年，用户正越来越多地发现，公开社交网络上的许多内容都遭到了监控和分析，而大量用户数据被提供给营销者和广告主。

Messaging apps aren't necessarily any more private and secure than a more public social network - that depends on their use of encryption techniques and security practices - but they feel that way, which has also factored into their growing adoption.

消息应用并没有比公开社交网络更私密、更安全。这取决于应用使用的加密技术和安全行为。此外，使用消息应用的用户也越来越多。

But their growth has come at others' expense.

然而，这些应用的发展以其他应用的牺牲为代价。

For example, the personalization category lost the most traction, with a 46 percent decline in usage. Flurry attributed this drop to the diminishing value for users of these apps.

例如，个性化应用正失去用户的兴趣，使用量同比下降了46%。Flurry 认为，这一下降是由于应用对用户的价值在减小。

Games also declined in terms of time spent by 4 percent - a smallish drop, but one that speaks to the ephemeral[短暂的,极短的;转瞬即逝的] nature of these applications.

从用户所花时间来看，游戏应用也同比下降了4%。尽管降幅不大，但这也反映了这些应用所处的状况。

Gaming revenue is doing okay, though. Thanks to massive hits like Pokémon GO, the App Store has been breaking records on that front. (Also, note that Super Mario Run arrived too late in the year to impact Flurry's numbers in the Games category.)

不过，游戏的营收情况良好。由于《口袋妖怪 Go》的火爆，App Store 打破了这方面的纪录。（《超级马里奥跑酷》的推出时间太晚，没有对 Flurry 的统计数据产生太大影响。）

Other app categories on the rise in 2016 included Business and Finance, up 43 percent in terms of time spent; Shopping, up 32 percent; and Sports, up 25 percent.

2016年其他出现增长的应用门类包括商业和财务，从用户花费时间来看增长了43%。购物应用和体育应用分别增长了32%和25%。

Shopping, in particular, benefited from the maturation of the e-commerce industry, which has made strides[很大进步;取得进展] in terms of enabling easier mobile checkout flows, and has benefited from native mobile payment mechanisms, like Apple Pay, we'd argue.

电商行业的成熟给购物应用带来了帮助。业内人士认为，移动支付流程发展，以及原生移动支付应用，例如Apple Pay的崛起给电商行业带来了帮助。

And Flurry notes, too, that Amazon's prowess[杰出的才能;高超的技能] can't be overlooked, as it took 38 percent of holiday sales transactions.

Flurry指出，亚马逊的实力不容低估。在去年的假日季销售中，亚马逊的份额达到 38%。

Beyond apps, the report also delved into[深入研究;探究] form factor[形状参数;规格] preferences, finding that phablets[平板式手机] now account for 41 percent market share by Q4 2016. This correlates with the growth in media consumption and social engagement app categories, Flurry says.

除应用之外，报告还研究了用户对设备尺寸的偏好。报告发现，2016年第四季度，平板手机的市场份额为41%。这与媒体消费和社交互动类应用的发展一致。

Overall, the slowing of growth in app usage points to the end of the app gold rush era and market maturity.

整体来看，应用使用量的增长放缓表明了应用“掘金热”的消退，以及市场的成熟。

It will be harder for new apps to find install bases, which means you'll see more startups pulling stunts[噱头;特技;花招] like spamming your contact list to hack their growth, perhaps, more M&A[Mergers and Acquisitions并购] activity in this space and more VC-backed apps closing up shop when the funds run out.

新应用提高装机量将很困难，这意味着你将看到更多创业公司利用其他手段来推动增长，例如利用用户的联系人列表。或许，这一领域将出现更多并购，而更多由风投支持的应用将在资金耗尽之后关闭。

The big tech companies behind the app platforms - Apple, Google, Microsoft and the like - will be looking to find the next developer platform, as the mobile app ecosystem matures. In the running are apps for wearables, connected TVs and media players and bots.

随着移动应用生态系统的成熟，苹果、谷歌和微软等应用平台公司将探索下一代的开发者平台，例如面向可穿戴设备、互联电视、媒体播放器和机器人的应用。

But the most promising next frontier appears to be voice computing - which means 2017 may be Amazon's turn to play in the "app" ecosystem, thanks to its Alexa assistant and its many add-ons.

然而最具前景的一大领域将是语音计算，这意味着2017年亚马逊将凭借Alexa语音助手和许多插件去发展自己的“应用”生态系统。

英文原文：http://t.cn/RMCRudJ

中文原文：http://t.cn/RMCRBlY